Daily Market Analysis

Crude oil keeps the rally after deducting 5.8 million barrels from the market supply

Gold defends the $1,800 support and enters the crossover period awaiting volatility

Traders aware of Trump’s impeachment and Biden’s presidential inauguration

DAX 30 fails to hold above 14,000 points and seeks to consolidate above 13,800

CRUDE OIL +0.81%

At the moment WTI is rising 0.81% and is trading at USD$53.57 per barrel. Rally continues to be driven by the market reaction to the API (American Petroleum Institute) report, where inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, allowing prices to gain additional points.
Saudi Arabia’s next production cut is estimated at 1 million barrels. Main risks of the oil rally are: the delay of the vaccines, shale oil producers in the USA which are increasing their production to take advantage of the price rally, and the strengthening of the USD.

• Support 1: 53,48
• Support 2: 53,38
• Support 3: 53,29
• Resistance 1: 53,67
• Resistance 2: 53,76
• Resistance 3: 53,86
• Pivot Point: 53,57

Upward trend. The price is at the highest level since February 2020. It is also above the 25 and 15 day moving average. Expected trading range between 53.29 and 53.86. Pivot point for trend change at 53.57.

XAUUSD +0.63%

Gold entered a crossover period yesterday, where it is waiting for more market volatility to set its short and medium term trend. It is currently trading at USD$1,856 per Troy ounce. The safe-haven assets that are currently being used in the portfolios are metals and crypto-currencies. Both are affected when massive stock sales occur.
Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that gold prices may recover to prices above USD$1,900 per ounce, driven by Biden’s stimulus package, which would force the FED to raise interest rates.

• Support 1: 1855.66
• Support 2: 1853.98
• Support 3: 1850.61
• Resistance 1: 1860.71
• Resistance 2: 1864.08
• Resistance 3: 1865.76
• Pivot Point: 1859.03

Price is slightly below the ascend line and is below the 15 and 25 day moving average. The Bears are holding the target at USD$1,800. The next support would be USD$1,765.   

FTSE 100 +0.09%

For today, we will have interesting data on UK household consumption, which is a thermometer of the economy. At the moment the FTSE 100 is up 0.09% and trading at 6,714.
On the other hand, traders are watching the impeachment on Trump, which could generate volatility for the UK index, as the companies that compose it, originate much of their business in the US. In the same way, the cases of covid-19 worldwide continue to increase. Vaccines are not keeping pace, so we may see an economic impact in Q1 2021 and possibly Q2.

• Support 1: 6749.32
• Support 2: 6744.52
• Support 3: 6738.73
• Resistance 1: 6759.91
• Resistance 2: 6765.70
• Resistance 3: 6770.50
• Pivot Point: 6755.11

Expected trading range between 6,738 and 6,770. Pivot point for trend change at 6,755. The Ichimoku cloud places the index above 6,736, with possible rise. Interesting volatilities as we approach the presidential inauguration of Biden the 20th January 2021.

DAX 30 -0.03%

Bulls have not managed to keep the price of the German index above 14,000 points, but defend the support of 13,895. The index is currently falling 0.03%. Possible short term economic contraction is estimated for Q1 2021 due to the delay of the vaccination.
Upside scenario if the index consolidates above 13,800 points.  Downward scenario would be if the index shows strong sales at the 13,800 level, taking it to 13,400 points.

• Support 1: 13915.15
• Support 2: 13905.25
• Support 3: 13895.15
• Resistance 1: 13935.15
• Resistance 2: 13945.25
• Resistance 3: 13955.15
• Pivot Point: 13925.25

Expected trading range between 13,895 and 13,955 with pivot point for trend reversal at 13,925 points. In the bullish scenario the index could reach 14,200 and then 14,400. In the bearish scenario, sales at 13,800 and consolidation towards 13,370 points.

Sources

• Reuters
• Market watch
• Bloomberg
• Capitalix Market Research