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European market awaits the ECB’s forthcoming macroeconomic data; US stimulus packages and logistics to accelerate the vaccination of the population

EURUSD with negative trend, but trying to recover the 1.2200 level

Gold broke the 1.900 support and the bears are taking it towards 1.800

Crude oil remains above USD$51/barrel, defending significant support at USD$50/barrel

DAX 30 -0.40%

DAX 30 begins the week with the strengthening of the USD as a result of the current drop in oil prices. The German Index managed to break through the 14,000 point resistance and the Bulls maintain their goal of taking it to 15,000 points. However, the index is dropping and is currently trading at 13,966 points. In Europe, the ECB estimated a benchmark EURUSD rate at 1.2250 but the USD has gained strength in the market due to the current drop in oil prices.

• Support 1: 13,939.5
• Support 2: 13,898.0
• Support 3: 13,872.0
• Resistance 1: 14,007.0
• Resistance 2: 14,033.0
• Resistance 3: 14,074.5
• Pivot Point: 13,965.5

Expected trading range between 13,872 and 14,074 with pivot point for trend change in 13,965. The Ichimoku cloud projects the index above 14,000 points. Traders are watching for announcements of bigger stimulus packages in the US, which will generate a new rally in the market.

EURUSD -0.30%

EURUSD is trading in the spot market at 1.2187. On Friday, the NFP data showed that the US economy is generating fewer nonfarm jobs than in previous months. However, the Unemployment Rate data favored the markets, where a 6.8% was expected and the result was 6.7%, slightly better than the forecast. Analysts expect the currency to be above the 1.2129 level.

• Support 1: 1.2185
• Support 2: 1.2179
• Support 3: 1.2175
• Resistance 1: 1,2194
• Resistance 2: 1,2199
• Resistance 3: 1,2204
• Pivot Point: 1,2189

The depreciation of the EURUSD that was evidenced on Friday showed that the currency is entering a negative short term outlook. The main support to be defended is at 1.2175. If this support breaks, we could see more prolonged declines. If on the other hand, favourable economic data from the Eurozone emerges in the market, we could see a move towards resistance from 1.2194 to 1.2204, recovering this level. Pivot point at 1.2189. 

XAUUSD +1.01%

The Bulls were expecting gold to rebound above USD$1,950/ounce Troy on Friday. However, the favourable US unemployment figure caused gold to break out of its USD$1,900 support. Traders are watching the performance of Treasury Bonds. If they go up, gold go down and vice versa.

• Support 1: 1,843.14
• Support 2: 1,840.27
• Support 3: 1,837.64
• Resistance 1: 1,848.64
• Resistance 2: 1,851.27
• Resistance 3: 1,854.14
• Pivot Point: 1,845.77

Today’s expected trading range is between 1,854 and 1,837 with a pivot point for a change in trend at 1,845. Bears continue to sell the metal and are targeting the 1,800 level. Bulls are expecting a correction in the stock market, so that the metal can regain the 1,900 level. Everything depends on the evolution of the vaccine, the pandemic and the new US administration and its monetary policy strategy. 

CRUDE OIL -0.57%

Oil broke through the USD$50/barrel resistance, and is currently defending the support of USD$51.60/barrel. At the beginning of this week, oil started falling by 0.57% as a result of the increasing number of covid-19 infections worldwide and the slow process of vaccination that is being witnessed around the world. OPEC+ knows that it must keep supply levels low so that the price remains at a level that generates profit margins for producers and market intermediaries. The fall in prices to a negative level, as seen in April 2020, is the cartel greatest fear.

• Support 1: 51.60
• Support 2: 51.47
• Support 3: 51.39
• Resistance 1: 51.81
• Resistance 2: 51.89
• Resistance 3: 52.02
• Pivot Point: 51.68

The price is marking the highest level since February 2020 and has  9 weeks of  consecutive gains. Traders are watching for a possible market correction to 49 level. Bulls target the resistance of USD$55/barrel. Expected trading range between 51.39 and 52.02 with Pivot Point for change of tren in USD$51.68/barrel. 

المصادر

• Reuters
• Market watch
• Bloomberg
• Capitalix Market Research